Summer box office could lead to first $10 billion year since pandemic

Hollywood is having its best summer since before the pandemic, and that hot streak is putting the annual box office on pace to cross $10 billion for the first time in seven years.

The season, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, has tallied $1.8 billion so far through Sunday. That’s down less than 2% from 2019 levels, or just about a $30 million lag. Industry analysts keep a close eye on this period of the year because it typically accounts for about 40% of the total annual domestic box office.

“The summer box office is incredibly important,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at movie data company Rentrak. “It’s vitally important in terms of what the overall health of the industry looks like and what that portends for the entire year.”

What sets this summer apart is that it didn’t kick off with a blockbuster action film or superhero team-up. Instead, the first major hit of the season came with the release of Disney’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” followed by Universal’s “Obsession” and A24’s “Backrooms,” two low-budget horror films from YouTube creators-turned-filmmakers. 

It was further fueled by residual ticket sales of Lionsgate’s “Michael,” the Michael Jackson biopic, which debuted in late April.

Together, those four films have contributed nearly $850 million to the domestic summer box office since the start of May, according to data from Rentrak. Notably, that’s about how much Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Endgame” had tallied for the 2019 box office during the same period. 

Last week’s release of Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” delivered another boost, posting a franchise-best opening of $160 million.

Combined, the handful of upside surprises is making for a stronger-than-expected domestic box office and a promising foundation for the second half of the year as the industry chases pre-pandemic levels.

As of Sunday, the 2026 box office has tallied $4.4 billion domestically, about 15% behind the $5.2 billion the 2019 box office had collected during the same time period.

Contributing to the surprisingly strong ticket sales is movies like “Michael,” “Obsession” and even Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary,” which was released in March, that are holding strong at the box office week after week.

Typically, after opening weekend, a title will see sales drop anywhere from 50% to 70%. But these films were seeing drops of between 20% to 40% each week.

“Obsession” has pulled off an even rarer box office feat as ticket sales actually increased in its second and third weekend in theaters, up 39% and 14%, respectively, according to data from The Numbers.

That success is a sign that films are getting solid word of mouth from audiences and that it’s driving new moviegoers to cinemas.

“It’s just been one after another after another,” said Alex DelVecchio, general manager of Rutgers Cinema in Piscataway, New Jersey. “I always said this whole year was about getting to June 19. Because once you get to June 19 you hit this six weeks in a row. It’s Toy Story, ‘Supergirl,’ Minions, ‘Moana,’ [‘The Odyssey’] and Spider-Man.”

The combined efforts of those six films could boost the summer box office to $4.2 billion, Dergarabedian said. The summer box office has only surpassed $4 billion once since 2019, and that was thanks to the dual efforts of Warner Bros. “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” in 2023, according to Rentrak data.

That threshold would mark a return to normal cadence for the summer box office, which collected more than $4 billion practically every year between 2013 and 2019 before Covid shut down cinemas.

Universal’s “The Odyssey,” directed by Christopher Nolan, is currently tracking for a $100 million-plus opening weekend and is expected to benefit significantly from premium large format screenings.

Sony’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which was made in collaboration with Disney’s Marvel Studios, could perform even better, with some analysts predicting between $200 million and $250 million for its opening weekend.

“‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ could be the biggest opening weekend of the year,” Dergarabedian said. “And that opens on July 31st. What’s that going to mean for August? Well, a lot, because that’s going to add and contribute a lot of box office to the month. Then that sets up a fall and a holiday period [where] I think we’re not going to see really that much of a slowdown.”