PSKY’s WBD bid has 1-in-4 odds of falling through, Kalshi traders say

Prediction markets traders still see Paramount Skydance as likely to succeed in its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, but a battle in court with 12 state attorneys general is increasing the chances that the merger falls through. 

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think that there’s a 74% likelihood that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, while there are 22% odds that a deal doesn’t go through by that date. 

Before California and 11 other states sued to block the merger on July 13, odds Paramount would succeed in acquiring the company were over 80%. However, the likelihood the merger would be successful fell to as low as 66% on July 24 when Paramount announced it would delay the acquisition to 2027.

On Kalshi, speculators are asked in the market who will successfully take over Warner Bros. before July 2027, and contracts are resolved from news reports, official press releases and or government filings.

Meanwhile, on platform Polymarket, odds are a similar 23% that no acquisition succeeds by June 30, 2027. The contracts on Polymarket are resolved using a consensus of reporting. 

The merger’s termination date is March 4, 2027, and that date automatically extends to June 4, 2027, if only regulatory obstacles remain. 

A federal judge set a March 2027 trial date for the states’ lawsuit. Paramount said before the date was announced that it wouldn’t complete the acquisition until a court ruling on the states’ claims or until June 1, 2027, whichever comes first. If the deal doesn’t close by Sept. 30, Paramount will owe 25 cents per share, per quarter to Warner Bros. shareholders until the transaction is finalized. 

Last week, the Directors Guild of America and International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees wrote a letter to California Attorney General Rob Bonta — who has taken the lead in the states’ case against the merger — and Paramount CEO David Ellison, calling on them to negotiate a solution or push to move the start date of the trial earlier to avoid prolonged uncertainty. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.