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In surfer slang, a wave that lasts a long time is a “runner.” A key question for investors is whether the blue wave that washed over the country Tuesday was that kind of wave, and could it ferry Democrats to victory in 2028.
Statistically, the answer is it should have little effect.
CNBC analyzed elections since 1938 and looked at the biggest midterm wave elections where the party in the White House lost seats to determine whether they portend anything about the presidential election two years later.
Tuesday’s election was the biggest House seat loss for the incumbent party in the White House since 2018, but it only barely makes the historical Top 10. It ranks 10th in CNBC’s analysis using an estimate of 41 House seats gained by the opposition party as close races are still being tallied. The largest loss came in 1938 when Democrats lost 72 House seats amid a renewed recession, opposition to court-packing by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the president’s battle with conservatives in his own party. Roosevelt went on to win reelection two years later in 1940.
In more modern times, Republicans swept to power in the House in 2010 two years into Barack Obama’s first presidential term, with Democrats losing 64 seats, though retaining control of the Senate. Obama went on to reelection two years later. Of the top four wave elections, which all occurred before a president’s final term, the incumbent went on to win reelection each time.
But for the next five waves, the incumbent party lost, including John F. Kennedy beating Richard Nixon in 1960 after Republicans lost seats under President Dwight Eisenhower in 1958; and Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in 2020 after Republicans lost seats in 2018.
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, said the reason midterm waves may not carry forward is the importance of individual characters in presidential elections.
“A lot can happen in two years. And while presidential elections are certainly subject to the overall political environment, they are also very much about each party’s nominee,” Campbell said. “If candidate quality matters in congressional elections, it matters 1,000 times more in presidential ones.”
It’s a long way to 2028 and this wave, gnarly as it may have been, could statistically peter out just as easily as it could wash Democrats back into the White House.