What a U.S. intervention in Iran could look like as Trump weighs options

U.S. President Donald Trump is readying for a likely intervention in Iran, as the country cracks down on protestors, with several hundreds reportedly killed and internet access cut off.

The possible next steps could include boosting antigovernment sources online, deploying cyber weapons against the Iranian military and civilian sites, placing more sanctions on the regime as well as military strikes, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump’s aides are set to brief him on Tuesday on a possible intervention.

The options being presented to Trump range from targeted strikes inside Iran to offensive cyber attacks, Politico also reported, citing an unnamed official familiar with the ongoing development.

“If the U.S. decides it needs to act to protect personnel or assets, or to protect energy flows, then it has a range of tools, from cyber and sabotage, to drones and missile strikes from air and sea,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

The U.S. could also attack nuclear or military infrastructure or government facilities to reduce the regime’s abilities and “deter the regime from disruptive actions,” Gertken added.

The unrest in Iran, which started in late December over soaring prices and the collapse of Iran’s currency, has intensified and morphed into wider antigovernment protests that threaten the Islamic regime.

Tehran has over the weekend stepped up action against protestors, with more the 500 people killed, according to U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Iran has warned the U.S. and Israel against any intervention, with President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday, blaming them for fueling the unrest.

“Iran is far more capable of retaliating against the U.S., especially by attacking regional energy infrastructure,” Gertken said, adding that the Trump administration was “not necessarily eager to destroy the regime” unless it deteriorates “so significantly that the U.S. finds it cannot pass up the opportunity to intervene to force a change of regime.”

Trump’s administration’s playbook often “changes day by day,” but his threats still carry weight as Iran has long been on his agenda and the unrest swells into the “deepest and most widespread protest” in years that the regime does not have under control, Dan Yergin, vice chairman at S&P Global, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East.”

Trump has openly backed Iranian protestors and telegraphed his interest in intervening several times on his Truth Social platform, saying that the U.S. would come to the “rescue” of Iranians if the authorities there continued to kill protesters. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” Trump said in a social media post Saturday.

“We’re looking at it very seriously. The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One as he returned to Washington from his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. “We’ll make a determination.”

Trump is also considering non-kinetic measures including cyber and covert action, according to Politico, noting the U.S. President was not expected to send American forces into the country and there has been no major movement of U.S. military assets.

The U.S. is looking at restoring internet communications in Iran as its leaders have cut off internet and phone services in the country. “We may get the internet going, if that’s possible,” Trump told reporters. “We may speak to Elon Musk. I’m going to call him as soon as I’m finished with you.” Iran has reportedly jammed Musk’s Starlink during the latest protests.

Even if the U.S. administration considers a “symbolic” kinetic strike, it could trigger a “much broader escalation,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.

“The dilemma is at its peak: a strong strike could potentially undermine the regime’s repression efforts, but at the same time it might lead to greater cohesion within the regime and a broader escalation,” Citrinowicz said.

“Given the absence of leadership in the opposition, such a strike may achieve an operational success but not a strategic one,” he added.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iranian Parliament speaker, warned during a session broadcast live by state television that Israel and “all American military centers, bases and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets” if the U.S. attacks Iran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last Friday that Iran’s government will “not back down” amid the protests.

The unrest comes as the Islamic republic has been increasingly vulnerable with leaders facing mounting internal and domestic strains and a population growing angrier over a deepening economic crisis. Its official currency rial has lost half of its value over the past year, plunging to record-lows of about 1 million rials per U.S. dollar, according to LSEG data.

“These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life,” said Sanam Vakil, director of Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

— CNBC’s Dan Murphy contributed to this story.