Project Freedom aims to reopen Hormuz Strait. Experts are skeptical

Defense and geopolitical experts are skeptical that “Project Freedom,” the Trump administration’s new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, will succeed.

“In my view, it’s not a solution at all,” Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a libertarian-leaning foreign policy think tank, said of the operation.

“It doesn’t really address the underlying problem here, which is that the uncertainty about the safety of transit means that ship captains and shipping companies are hesitant to take the risk,” Kavanagh said in a phone interview.

The administration, however, says its day-old effort to defend ships transiting the strait from Iranian attacks is already working.

“We’ve now opened a passage through the Strait of Hormuz to allow for the free flow of commerce to proceed,” U.S. Central Command leader Adm. Brad Cooper said Monday, just hours after Project Freedom commenced.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that two U.S. commercial ships, accompanied by American destroyers, “have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear.”

“We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact,” he boasted. “They said they control the strait. They do not.”

The administration hasn’t put a price tag or timeline on the new mission, though Hegseth said it will be “focused in scope and temporary in duration.”

Analysts who spoke with CNBC questioned whether the operation offers either a short-term or long-term solution to the chokepoint in the strait, the top global oil pathway that is at the center of the ongoing conflict with Iran. Pre-war, the narrow waterway saw 20% of the world’s oil transit through it leaving the Persian Gulf.

The defensive operation, they say, doesn’t sufficiently address or inhibit Iran’s ability to threaten vessels attempting to transit the strait, and so the journey remains too risky for most to attempt.

It could also further fray relations with Iran, leading to increased aggression and prolonging any diplomatic agreement, which may be the only way to return commercial traffic in the strait to pre-war levels.

“Project Freedom is unlikely to be a completely decisive solution to Gulf maritime insecurity, but rather a limited, high‑risk deterrence experiment,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an email.

President Donald Trump announced the operation in a Truth Social post Sunday evening, saying the U.S. has assured countries whose vessels are stuck due to the war that it will “guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways.”

CENTCOM said the U.S. military will deploy “guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members” to support Project Freedom.

The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. launched “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that that mission has “concluded.”

“We achieved the objectives of that operation,” Rubio told reporters at the White House.

A core objective of Operation Epic Fury was to ensure that Iran could never obtain a nuclear weapon. Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported Monday that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s timeline for acquiring such a weapon has not changed since last summer.

Project Freedom is a defensive mission — but it does not involve escorting individual ships, which would “be very expensive and resource intensive,” Kavanagh said. The strait is approximately 104 miles long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

“It would have to be permanent, until you have a political solution,” she said. “So it’s really not feasible.”

Cooper, in a call with reporters Monday afternoon, said the current arrangement comprises “a much broader defensive package than you would have ever if you were just escorting.”

He also said the U.S. has encouraged dozens of ships and shipping companies to resume traffic flow through the strait. “This news has been quite enthusiastically received, and we’re already beginning to see movement,” Cooper said.

Indeed, a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel operated by a subsidiary of Danish shipping giant Maersk did successfully transit the strait under U.S. military protection on Monday, the company said.

But that hardly represents a return to normal times, when more than 100 vessels, including dozens of oil tankers, would cross the passage each day.

Project Freedom began more than three weeks after Trump announced a U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman on the east side of the strait, which is aimed at raising economic pressure on Tehran by preventing ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

The naval blockade, which remains in effect, came after an initial round of peace talks with Iran failed to end in a deal. It also followed Trump venting frustrations about persistently low traffic in the strait, despite a fragile ceasefire taking effect the prior week.

The de facto closure of the vital waterway has caused a historic global energy supply shock that has dramatically raised oil and gas prices and hampered supply of fuels, fertilizer and other goods.

Project Freedom is “likely not sufficient to start the process of normalizing Hormuz transit,” Fernando Ferreira, director of Rapidan Energy Group’s geopolitical risk service, said in a phone interview.

While the U.S. can provide guidance on sea lanes that are free of mines, or provide air support and coverage for transiting vessels, Iran “clearly has an asymmetric capability” to continue to exert control in the region, Ferreira said.

“Companies are going to remain reluctant” to make the trek for that reason, he said, “at least until there is a clear demonstration that Iran no longer possesses those capabilities.”

Kennedy agreed. “Until ceasefire negotiations resolve, the core disputes around sanctions relief, Iran’s enrichment capacity, and security guarantees, most operators will probably consider Hormuz transit as an extreme‑risk regardless of U.S. naval presence,” he said.

A South Korean-operated vessel in the Strait of Hormuz also caught fire on Monday. Trump later said that Iran had attacked it.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington not to engage in further military action, writing in an X post, “Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis.”

“The U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers,” he wrote, adding, “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”

Despite the aggression, the U.S. maintains that its ceasefire with Iran remains in effect. Kavanagh said both sides have incentives to keep the testy truce alive.

But that may not be possible if the attacks escalate, Kennedy said.

“Maintaining safe passage would require indefinite convoy operations, expanded base defense and acceptance of persistent pressure from Iran, including direct threats to U.S. naval assets,” he said. “If Iranian attacks intensify or U.S. vessels are struck, Washington would face a choice between standing down the operation or escalating militarily.”

“Project Freedom is tactically feasible but strategically, unlikely to restore confidence for commercial shipping over the long term without a broader political settlement,” Kennedy said.