Democrats have 11-point lead among likely voters as Trumps approval rating craters – live

Speaking earlier, JD Vance also chided Republicans for their outrage over the controversial campaign ad from Vivek Ramaswamy, featuring his Democratic opponent’s estranged mother.

Amy Acton was sexually abused by her mother’s husband when she was 12 years old, according to her brother Phillip Stearns. Their mother, Donna Arthur, remained married to her husband after he was arrested, even though Acton and Stearns were removed from her care.

Vance said he wasn’t going to weigh in on whether the spot was “appropriate or not”, instead he said that his “message” for fellow elected Republicans is to “stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days”.

At a campaign stop in Cincinnati, the vice-president added:

I have to admit that I’m a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America.

Elon Musk – the tech billionaire, Trump ally, and founder of Tesla and Space X – has threatened to home in on Democrats who pursue him in the next Congress.

“Live by the sword, die by the sword,” Musk wrote on X, the social media platform he bought in 2022. “Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets.”

This comes after Politico reported earlier today that Democratic lawmakers were considering how best to investigate Musk, and his businesses, if the party gains control of Congress following the midterm elections.

• US envoy Steve Witkoff announced this morning that Russia authorities had freed Stephen Hubbard, the first American known to be convicted of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine. Hubbard was arrested when the Russians briefly took over the Ukrainian city of Izium at the start of the ongoing conflict in 2022.

• Donald Trump welcomed the news, noting the prisoner release was the result of a direct request he made to Putin in a telephone call last week. Meanwhile, after Witkoff’s discussions with Putin in St Petersburg, he flattered the Russian president by calling him a “humanitarian”. The emissary’s comments drew bipartisan backlash, but Trump defended them: “I guess you could say for that particular purpose, for the purpose of allowing a man who was thinking he was going to be in prison for life,out,” the US president told reporters in the East Room.

• Witkoff also said that his discussions with Putin were “constructive”, and “will continue with trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine at the technical level”. This comes after Trump’s reignited feud with Zelenskyy after he urged Kyiv to end its attacks on Russian refineries and waived sweeping sanctions against Moscow.

• New polling from the New York Times and Siena University shows that likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans running for office by 11 percentage points. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating dropped to a new low for this particular survey – 36%.

• At a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio, JD Vance criticized the media and Democrats for focusing on Vivek Ramaswamy’s recent ad for his gubernatorial campaign, which features the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. The vice-president defended Ramaswamy for having “the audacity to run a TV commercial which calls it out like it is, and calls Amy Acton a liar”. Donna Arthur, Acton’s mother, claimed in the spot that her daughter “lied her entire life” about living in a tent during her childhood. However, Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns, said on Tuesday that his sister is estranged from her mother, who had married a man that sexually abused Acton when she was 12 years old. Arthur, he said, remained in the marriage even after her husband was arrested and her children were taken away from her.

• The supreme court has refused to allow the Trump administration to immediately deny gender-affirming care for transgender people in federal prisons. The decision leaves in place a lower-court block on the policy while a legal challenge plays out. It was adopted after an executive order from Trump, who’s taken several steps to roll back transgender rights during his second term.

• With 13 days until the midterms, Trump will continue his campaign blitz by heading to Clemson, South Carolina, where he’ll rally for Darline Graham – the Republican nominee for US Senate who is hoping to secure a full term for her late brother’s seat. Darline was appointed by the South Carolina governor to carry out the remainder of Lindsey Graham’s time in office after his death in July. However, she now faces a competitive race against Annie Andrews, a pediatrician and the Democratic nominee, in a contest that has become increasingly rancorous in recent months.

In the East Room today, Trump defended Steve Witkoff’s comments, noting that the release of Steven Hubbard might warrant praise for Putin.

“I guess you could say for that particular purpose, for the purpose of allowing a man who was thinking he was going to be in prison for life, out,” Trump told reporters.

Earlier, we noted that Thom Tillis, the outgoing Republican senator from North Carolina, slammed special envoy Steve Witkoff for calling Vladimir Putin a “humanitarian” today –following the release of detained US citizen Steven Hubbard.

Now, more GOP lawmakers are pushing back.

“Vladimir Putin is not our friend, and he is certainly no humanitarian,” said retiring Republican senator Joni Ernst.

She added: “His relentless attacks on innocent civilians in Ukraine show his total disregard for human life. Appeasement won’t end this war. Pressure will.”

With 13 days until the midterms, early voting data is rolling in nationwide. Democrats need to net four Senate seats and hold 218 House seats to reclaim a congressional majority. Here is where the numbers stand so far:

• Turnout is surging in key battlegrounds: Over 16 million Americans have already voted in person or by mail. According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, battleground states -including Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, Florida and North Carolina – have each passed 700,000 ballots cast as of 21 October. Turnout is being driven in part by widespread voter frustration, reflected in Donald Trump’s record-low approval ratings.

• Democrats lead in early returns: Registered Democrats account for 47% of early ballots cast, compared with 29% from Republicans (tracking returned ballots, not candidate selection). The party gap is most pronounced in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa. While Republicans traditionally favor election day voting, strategists worry this widened margin signals a “red undertow” – GOP voters staying home due to frustration over high gas prices, the conflict in Iran and sweeping tariffs.

• Early votes are pacing well ahead of 2022: In Georgia, early votes already represent nearly 30% of the total turnout from the 2022 midterms. Florida sits at 18%, with similarly high paces recorded in North Carolina, Michigan and Ohio.

• Mail-in voting remains resilient: Over 56m mail-in ballots have been requested or sent nationally – greater than the 52m requested in 2022, according to NBC News (using data from TargetSmart). Despite executive orders from the Trump administration attempting to restrict mail-in voting, which the supreme court struck down in September, voters continue to utilize the process at pre-pandemic rates.

A judge in New Mexico ordered Meta to pay $25bn in penalties, on after a jury found the company had misled consumers in a case arising from allegations that Cambridge Analytica – a political consulting firm involved in Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign – obtained data from millions of Facebook users ⁠without their consent.

The state’s attorney general had sued Meta in 2021 following revelations that Cambridge Analytica, ⁠a British political consulting firm, had harvested personal data from as many as 87 million Facebook users through a third-party app.

“Facebook’s wrongdoing – ⁠over the course of ​years and systematically broadcast to the public – goes to the heart of Facebook’s core business practices,” Judge Francis Mathew wrote in his order following the verdict.

Mathew found that a penalty of more than $219bn was warranted, based on state law, but he reduced the figure to $25bn.

In Maine, Susan Collins, the moderate Republican incumbent senator vying for a sixth term in office, joined the growing list of GOP lawmakers to urge the Trump administration to reverse the waiving of Russian sanctions.

“First of all the law is very clear, that we wanted additional sanctions to be imposed on Russia, by cutting the deal on diesel with Russia. [Trump] is not going to increase the supply to the United States in any measurable way. But what he is going to do is to get more funding for Russia to use to attack Ukraine,” Collins told reporters in Lewiston, where she was joined by former independent senator Joe Manchin for a campaign stop.

At a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio, JD Vance criticized the media and Democrats for focusing on Vivek Ramaswamy’s recent ad for his gubernatorial campaign, which features the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton.

As we noted earlier, the campaign spot, which has circulated among conservatives on social media, shows Donna Arthur, Acton’s mother, claiming that her daughter “lied her entire life” about spending time living in a tent during her childhood.

However, Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns, blasted the ad, and said his sister is estranged from her mother, who had married a man that sexually abused Acton when she was 12 years old. Arthur, he said, remained in the marriage even after her husband was arrested and her children were taken away from her.

Today, Vance defended Ramaswamy for having “the audacity to run a TV commercial which calls it out like it is and calls Amy Acton a liar”.

Vance added: “My message, ladies and gentlemen, is very simple. Whatever you think about any of the TV advertisements, focus on the substance and focus on the facts.”

Special envoy Steve Witkoff said his meeting today with Vladimir Putin – which resulted in the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old former teacher who had spent more than four years in Russian jails– was “constructive”.

Trump’s emissary met with Russian leadership in St Petersburg, after talks in Oslo with Zelenskyy and Nordic leaders. The Ukrainian president has pushed for an in-person meeting with Moscow and Washington to hammer out a lasting peace deal, as fighting rages on.

Witkoff added that his discussions today “will continue with trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine at the technical level”.

“While there is still important work left to do, President Trump remains committed to seeing this war end and achieving a comprehensive, durable peace that will provide security and prosperity for generations to come,” Witkoff said, following the president’s reignited feud with Zelenskyy after he urged Kyiv to end its attacks on Russian refineries and waived sweeping sanctions against Moscow.

A 24-year-old Kansas man has been arrested for allegedly threatening to shoot Donald Trump.

Authorities arrested Jaden J Read, of Clearwater, Kansas, last Saturday after he allegedly posted threats to kill the US president at his rally in the Wichita area on Monday, according to the justice department.

According to federal authorities, a Crime Stoppers tip on 15 October led investigators to a Facebook post responding to a KAKE News article about Trump’s upcoming Wichita visit. Read allegedly commented: “Let’s shoot Trump honestly, where’s our shooter? I’m tired of living this money life.”

Immediately afterward, he allegedly posted a second comment on the same article: “I just got a 308 and 305 round and I’m killing this pedo.”

Authorities also found two additional comments allegedly posted by Read in response to a KWCH 12 News article about Trump’s planned visit.

“Can we shoot him in Kansas please I will myself,” Read allegedly wrote. A minute later, he allegedly posted another comment, saying: “IK where your speech will be. Already mapped out roofs around. Finna get kirked since yall couldn’t help him.”

Read was arrested in Clearwater last Saturday and taken into federal custody, where he will remain pending a detention hearing. The district of Kansas filed a criminal complaint against Read for making threats against the president.

Here’s Maya’s report:

Retiring GOP senator Thom Tillis has ridiculed Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff for praising Vladimir Putin as a “humanitarian”.

“WTF, Steve? Look up the definition of ‘humanitarian,’” Tillis said in a post on X, with a screenshot showing the definition.

“What an embarrassing and outrageous thing to say,” the North Carolina senator went on. “You should go back to Ukraine and ask the families of the children Putin has kidnapped and murdered whether they agree your friend Putin is a ‘humanitarian.’”

Elena Kagan criticized rulings made by the US supreme court’s conservative majority this week, arguing that its recent decisions on redistricting and campaign finance had undermined America’s democracy.

“The court has kind of blinded itself to the very deleterious effects of their rulings on how the political system works,” said Kagan, one of the court’s three liberal justices, during a discussion at Catholic University’s law school in Washington DC yesterday, according to multiple reports.

She emphasized that the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, “has created a democracy that does not work as well as it should”.

Kagan’s remarks come just two weeks before the midterm elections and amid battles over congressional redistricting. Earlier this year, the supreme court struck down Louisiana’s congressional map, effectively gutting a major section of the Voting Rights Act. In June, the court also struck down campaign finance restrictions limiting how much political parties may spend on candidates. Both decisions were split 6-3 along ideological lines.

During yesterday’s discussion, Kagan also took aim at the court’s 2019 decision that held that federal courts should not police a practice known as partisan gerrymandering.

As a result, she said, “both political parties have been engaged in a race ​to the bottom in terms of doing these partisan gerrymanders, effectively depriving masses of citizens of their rights to voting ​equality”.

Kagan said that decision was pushing political candidates “away from the center, toward the wings, toward the extremes, because the only thing anybody has to worry about ⁠any more is being primaried”.

“It is making what I think is unfortunately a too polarized country even more so,” she continued. “In ​this election, and the next election, we are seeing large states with substantial numbers of people who vote for Republicans and who ​vote for Democrats, and the states are going to be tried to turn all red or all blue in a way that I think is very destructive to our democracy.”

Kagan also criticized the court’s decisions on campaign finance rules, and the increasing amounts of money in politics.

The people of America look around this political system and think that all this money chasing all these political candidates is a nightmare. And they’re right.

The supreme court has refused to allow the Trump administration to immediately deny gender-affirming care for transgender people in federal prisons.

The decision leaves in place a lower-court block on the policy while a legal challenge plays out. It was adopted after an executive order from Donald Trump, who’s taken several steps to roll back transgender rights during his second term.

Two of the supreme court’s six conservative justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, dissented, meaning they would have allowed the policy to be enforced.

The high court has previously allowed other policies for transgender people to move ahead for now, including restrictions on military service, passport sex markers, and state-level bans on trans women and girls athletes from participating on sports teams.

Trump’s January 2025 executive order called on the Bureau of Prisons to revise its medical care policies so federal funds aren’t spent “for the purpose of conforming an inmate’s appearance to that of the opposite sex”.

The new policy would halt surgical and hormonal treatments, and end “social accommodations” like makeup and wigs. Prisons would continue to offer mental health services.

Trans prisoners sued the administration over the policy and, so far, two lower courts have blocked officials from implementing the order as the larger lawsuit over the executive order continues.

Steve Witkoff lavished praise on Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the grand Constantine Palace in St Petersburg, describing the Russian president as a humanitarian.

“You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that,” Trump’s special envoy told Putin. He also conveyed Trump’s thanks for a deal to resume Russian diesel exports to the US.

The Russian president is wanted by the international criminal court (ICC) as a war criminal, in relation to the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia during the war. More than 17,500 civilians have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to the UN, which says the true toll is likely to be significantly higher.

The warmth of Witkoff’s remarks stood in stark contrast to the increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at Volodymyr Zelenskyy by senior US officials, most notably Trump, who has called for the Ukrainian president to resign and portrayed him as the main obstacle to peace.

Witkoff travelled to Russia from Oslo, where he had met Zelenskyy and European leaders a day earlier in an attempt to inject momentum into stalled negotiations, with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now in its fifth year.

Witkoff told Putin during a televised portion of their meeting:

We’ve brought some papers. It’s really some ideas, some sort of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and you’ll read that at your leisure.

The visit was Witkoff’s ninth to Russia since Trump tasked him with brokering an end to the war.

A White House official has confirmed to the Guardian that Donald Trump’s roundtable at 2.30pm ET will be focused on cybercrime.

The president is “unleashing every available tool to stop foreign-based organized criminal organizations that exploit Americans in cyberspace”, the official said in a statement. “The most vulnerable among us – seniors, children, and low-income families – are disproportionately targeted, with scammers draining life savings, stealing the benefits of years of work, and destroying lives.”

According to the FBI, Americans reported losing almost $21bn to cybercrime and internet scams.

While Donald Trump will be in South Carolina today, his vice-president, JD Vance, will be stumping in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The Buckeye state is home to a must-keep Senate seat for Republicans, where the incumbent, John Husted, is fending off a challenge from former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown –the populist hoping for a comeback.

The state’s gubernatorial competition has also become increasingly bitter. On Tuesday, my colleague Chris Stein reported that the family of Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for governor of Ohio, is criticizing her Republican opponent Vivek Ramaswamy for using Acton’s estranged mother in a recently released campaign ad.

In the ad, which has circulated among conservatives on social media, Actons’s mother, Donna Arthur, said: “She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life.”

In a Tuesday statement, Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns, said his sister is estranged from her mother, who had married a man that sexually abused Acton when she was 12 years old. He added that Arthur remained in the marriage even after her husband was arrested and her children were taken away from her.

“It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother’s husband into a political talking point,” he said in a statement released by Acton’s campaign.

Donald Trump has welcomed the news that UK government has approved the controversial Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea.

“Great news for the wealth and prosperity of the United Kingdom, and the wonderful region of Aberdeen. The UK has started drilling in the North Sea, one of the greatest and most prosperous areas of OIL in the World,” the US president wrote on Truth Social.

He added that the UK should go “FULL BLAST”, and the move to resume offshore extraction would “make the UK very wealthy again”.

As my colleagues reported earlier today, Andy Burnham, the UK prime minister, said the Jackdaw project will “protect hundreds of jobs and help keep millions of homes warm this winter”. This comes after fierce opposition from several Labour MPs and environmental groups throughout the country.

Trump has long pushed for Britain to expand oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, instead of relying on wind turbines. He frequently clashed with Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer, who argued that energy sustainability relied on renewable sources and moving away from fossil fuel dependence.